My Electoral Map

My Electoral Math

I couldn't get to sleep thinking about the EC math. I think Plouffe has it basically right: we need to start Kerry's 2004 states plus Iowa and New Mexico. That gets us to 264. As a spectator, I am only watching 4 states this year: Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado. My thoughts from there:

Michigan & Pennsylvania

We can't do this without winning both. Technically toss-ups, Obama just has to carry these two states. I won't watch these states because if we lose either one, we are done.

Forget Florida

The campaign can't forget Florida, but I am going to. They need to play to win down there to make the other team spend lots of money. At the end of the day, I predict we lose it closely. The resources the other guys expend down there make it possible for us to win in MI and PA. But I won't watch, because I just can't re-live that nightmare again.

UPDATE: The Obama campaign needs to send Ed Koch to retirement communities in Florida and keep him there until the election.

Big States to Watch: Virginia & Ohio

There's a path to win without winning either of these states. In fact, we can lose them both and win if we pick up one of the small states below. I think we have a better shot in these states than in FL. I am kind of bullish on VA. I think we might be able win there, especially with the northern DC suburbs.

Small States to Watch: Nevada & Colorado

I don't think it's clear yet if the pick of Palin will boost McCain in these two Western swing states (and by Western Swing, we ain't talking Bob Wills---yeeeeee haaaaaaaa!). I think we could take either one; again, there's a path to win without either.

The encouraging thing about my math is that we only need one state above my starting point to win. Any of the four will do. Among these, the two most likely to go our way, IMHO, are Colorado and Virginia. As much as I'd like to, I can't forget Ohio along with Florida. But I'm not optimistic.